“It is better to have an army of lions led by a rat than an army of rats led by a lion” – Napoleon Bonaparte
Democracy in Africa’s largest democracy has gone through the crucible of misadventures to the turbulence in the desert of uncertainty to the pilgrimage of political upheaval. Albeit it has always weathered the storm it is still regarded as nascent. Since the return of democracy in 1999, she has consistently enthroned new set of leaders to steer the gargantuan ship of state. The processes and build up to the elections have always been one of intrigue, power play, propaganda, counter overtures and manoeuvres.
Unlike previous elections, the 2023 general elections will most likely be a watershed in the annals of history of Nigeria.
The electoral Act as amended has redefined the modus operandi of our electoral process. The introduction of electronic voting (the BVAS and the like) in the whole electoral process is a pointer that it may no longer be business as usual for desperate politicians who will clutch to any straw to actualize their ambition.
Moreover, the enthusiasm and commitment shown by the electorate to the processes leading to the polls, registration, sensitization of voters, collection of PVCs when juxtaposed to the usual apathy or poor voter turnout in previous elections gives a glimpse of what to expect.
What becomes even more interesting is the fact that the incumbent President Muhammad Buhari administration is winding up shop and closing his books. How his administration has fared this past seven years and counting is in the public domain and on the pages of history.
The 2023 elections have thrown a lot of political gladiators to the fray. The antecedence and pedigree of the contenders for the coveted seat is not cocooned in the realm of mystery or secrecy.
Who will wear the crown or fill in the huge shoes that will be left by the Daura transit borne President remains to be seen. So many political analysts and forecasters have predicted based on their assumptions and postulations with empirical and unorthodox evidences. Who becomes the next occupant of Aso Rock will largely be premised on, the electoral bodies preparation or readiness and capacity to organize a free, fair and credible polls. She (INEC) has a duty to be unbiased and truly independent while carrying out the sacrosanct duties of entrenching a smooth transition and organizing credible polls. Also, it will largely depend on the dramatis personae, the voters or electorates’ willingness and desire to partake of the process and see it through to its logical conclusion. The choice of who governs them will largely be decided by these people. How many among the voting population will be able to collect their PVCs before the elections, how many actually will be able to exercise their franchise and stick around to defend their votes. It is just less than sixty days to the February 25th polls and many are yet to pick up their PVCs largely due to logistical issues faced by the electoral body and encumbrances of the collection process.
Thirdly, another determinant of who wears the coveted crown of thorns will be the willingness of the present administration to put measures in place to have a smooth transition. President Muhammadu Buhari has assured Nigeria, Africa and the international community of his resolve to ensure there is a smooth electoral process and successful transition. Posterity eagerly awaits if this is not another hollow promise.
Let’s take a cursory look at the contenders for the Number one seat in Nigeria. For the purpose of this discourse, I will limit it to only three major contenders because recent polls indicate it is a three-horse race, very few narrowed it to four. That doesn’t mean Nigerians do not have a choice or we should look the other way or ignore other contenders in the ballot, that will be at our collective peril. From the likes of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the NNPP, Onoyele Sowore and Dumebi Kachukwu et al. They all have a case to prove.
Let us start from the ruling APC candidate, Bola Asiwaju Tinubu (aka BAT). The self-styled Jargaban of Lagos is a major contender for the number one seat. His reputation precedes him as one who governed Lagos from the return of democracy in 1999 to 2007 having served two terms in office. He is seen as one of the Dramatis personae who in their quest to enthrone democratic ethos were haunted by the then military junta and this led to his exile together with his other comrades of the NADECO family. He is seen as a demi God or deity, worshipped by a legion of supporters , mostly because of his huge war chest of money , influence and hold on the modern day Lagos. He is also reputed to have turned the fortunes of Lagos into a large economy and self-sustaining, improving the IGR of the state. This he did even when he fell out of favour with the then Chief Obasanjo led Federal government when he created additional local Government council areas and the allocations for Lagos was seized. He ensured the state survived without allocations from FAAC. He is also seen to have Lagos in his pockets and the south west states being that his acolytes or prodigies were installed through his political machinery. He and his likes were also the brain behind the installation of the present man in the saddle, President Muhammadu Buhari. Such an intimidating CV you may say. What are his chances. He stands tall among the gladiators in that he commands a lot of followership particularly in the south west states and some northern states. He is also of the ruling party the APC and majority of the states, two in the South East have APC governors. The snag however will be that of his seeming senility and questionable health status. Recently, a video surfaced online of him doing an exercise to prove his naysayers that he was alive and healthy and ready to take on the mantle of leadership. The seven-minute video though unconvincing however came on the backdrop of comments arising from his prolonged disappearance from the country, the delay of his presidential campaign flag off after INEC lifted the embargo of campaign on 28th September 2022 and his obvious absence at the signing for aspirants at the peace accord. This is reminiscent of the then late Yar’Adua who had to convince the world he is fit as fiddle when he was seen playing squash and challenged all who cared to a game of squash. Tongues will still continue to wag as issues regarding his actual origin, names, age and education records is still shrouded in indescribable mystery. Also, his case of running a drug cartel and his alleged conviction at the US is an Abiku that has refused to go away. His mental health status has been a concern to political observers and neutrals especially with his various gaffes or Freudian slips. The babablu episode and chants of God bless PDAPC raises a lot of eyebrows as to his state of health. This is an allegation his Calvary and infantry soldiers have vehemently defended and brushed aside as the machinations and illusions by the opposition to distract Nigerians.
Another chink in his political armour is Muslim-Muslim ticket with his choice of former Borneo state Governor Kashim Shettima that put a section of the country, the Christian north and a section of his political family at loggerheads. The perception of how the country fared this past seven years due to the leadership of his political party and the man at the helm President Muhammad Buhari that he sold to Nigerians and installed will be another key factor. Nigerians have not forgiven nor forgotten all his hollow promises.
The other contender is the erstwhile Vice President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the Turaki Adamawa of the People’s Democratic party PDP. He stands tall and has to its advantage as being a candidate from the largest opposition party being a former Vice President, he had a lot of acolytes and political friends. The PDM family and Yar’ Adua political machinery as well. Also, he has a huge war chest to prosecute the elections being at the helm of privitatisation of many governments owned agencies and companies. The story of how he enriched his cronies by selling some of the companies to them and how he made billions out of it is still public knowledge. He even in recent interviews said if given the opportunity he will enrich his friends. His reputation also precedes him he has a penchant of jumping ship. From his cross carpeting from PDP in 2003 to ACN to his movement to contest in APC to PDP to APC again and back to PDP is his Achilles heel. His stands a huge chance seeing that PDP controls many states and have a huge following and representatives in both the Green and Red chambers of our bicameral legislature.
However one of his nemesis will be the cracks in his party from the party presidential primaries that brought a lot of fireworks from his emergence , to the hysteria and disafection that greeted his choice of Vice Presidential candidate in the person of the current governor of Delta State, Senator Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa who is seen by some of his Southern brothers as a traitor haven being a champion of a Southern Presidency only to make a volte face to become a Vice Presidential candidate to an Atiku Abubakar of northern extraction. Also the insistence of the vociferous and hilarious Governor Nyesom Wike and the other Governors, christened the G5 Governors or Integrity groups’ insistence that Iyiocha Ayu, the national Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) must go. This according to the renegade or AWOL governors is premised on equity and justice saying it was unjust and unfair that both the Chairman of the party and the Presidential Flagberear are all from the same region(North). This has made Governor Wike and some of his political pilgrims, the G5 Governors threaten not to work for the party as evidenced in their withdrawal from the campaign council upon inauguration and the various Presidential campaign rallies round the country. Another blot on the escutcheon is the recent viral recording of an alleged former aide of the former Vice President, Mr. Michael Achimugu that indicts him of being involved in corrupt enterprise using the term Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to launder and siphon huge funds into private pockets to feather his nests. The PCC of the APC has through his vocal spokesman, Mr. Festus Keyamo challenged the media and security agencies in a recent press conference to arrest Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and insisted he should bow out of the race to save himself from ignominy.
The third contender is Mr. Peter Gregory Obi of the Labour party, who is seen as a cat with many lives having survived many pollical chess games. He was the former governor of Anambra state from March to November 2006, regained his mandate in 2007 after being impeached in November 2006. Won re-election in 2010 to 2014. His case is a watershed in the Nigerian judicial lexicon and jurisprudence that shaped our democracy especially as it relates to tenure of office for office holders.
His emergence into the arena of the 2023 gladiator conquest was like a sequoia tree that grew in silence. Formally of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), later of the PDP on leaving office as Governor in 2014. He is a close friend of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar being his running mate in the 2019 general elections. He resigned from the PDP citing what he called money politics syndrome and the fact that his zone the South East zone will be short-changed with the partys (PDP)zoning arrangement that threw the contest open instead of zoning it to a particular region. His emergence on the platform of Labour party came to many political observers and neutrals as a surprise. His popularity over the past few months had surpassed many expectations and beat the dynamics of politics. More surprising is that the Labour party is relatively unknown and has no representation in the bicameral legislature and even in the states. He commands a huge following and he has assumed a cult followership especially among the army of youth population. The demography of youth discipleship arose from the upsurge in social media. First, he was ridiculed that he had no structure and he was only a social media President. That has however defiled all hypothesis of science and political calculation.
The Obidient movement birthed from his emergence is organic and spreads like a virus, from the diaspora to back home in Nigeria. This is evidenced from the series of one million or four million marches across the country and around the world. And the huge turnout of supporters who throng in their multitudes to receive him at the campaign grounds across the country. These followers believe they have had enough and want to take back their country. Various opinion polls have predicted him to win the 2023 Presidential elections. This is however waved away by the other two political gladiators who say opinion polls doesn’t matter or win elections in Nigeria. Even endorsement from notable and key figures who have thrown their weight behind him has caused some raucous in the camp of other gladiators. Notable is the endorsement by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, this was greeted with a paroxysm of reactions especially from the ruling party APC, the PDP and NNPP and their flagbeaers.
Last year his supporters were planning to raise millions for his campaign through various means like crowd fund, this was greeted with mixed reactions and outcry from the other political parties.
Another thing that may count against him will be the recent statement of the nation’s electoral body that in a bid to clean the voters register most of the new registered voters or those who partook of the recently concluded continuous voters’ registration will not be captured. This may be throw spanner in his works seeing that the emergence of PO as he is popularly called saw the upsurge of those who were hitherto indifferent to partake in the electoral process as in the previous elections to change their mindset.
Also, there is also a school of thought who are afraid that the picture being painted of a Peter Obi as the Messiah may just be a feeling of dejavu. They argued that this was the same song serenaded by the same people who campaigned and sold a ‘Saint Buhari’ to Nigeria in 2015 and vilified Goodluck Ebele Jonathan as drunk, clueless and corrupt. The former was painted in the canvas of our psyche as Mr. Integrity, Anti-corruption Champion, Mr. prudent, a non-materialistic persona who had only one house in Daura and some herd of cattle and so on and so forth. Seven years after you know the rest of the story.
Also is the case of the pandora papers hanging like a sword of Damocles. The ruling APC through his PCC has accused Peter Obi as only being a pawn or cats paw being used by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo to fulfil his obsession of getting his hands on the Holy Grail of his ill-fated third term agenda. On the other hand, the PDP is fuming and licking her wounds that a Peter Obi on the ballot will divide the votes of the PDP particularly in the South and North Central states and whittle down her chances of ousting power from the hands of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC).
To many political observers and neutrals, they are looking at the indices to see which way the pendulum swings.
Fellow countrymen and women, as the race to Aso Rock in 2023 draws nigh it behooves on us as a people to look at the telescope of history and the crystal ball of the future , allow wisdom and common sense to prevail.
As a maxim states,’ the people are the products of the kind of leaders they choose’. Let us guide our democracy by being vigilant to the real enemies of our democracy. Vote buying, violence, propaganda, hate speech, cyber bullying, fake news and mendacity are cogs in the wheel of our progress; these we all should strive to fight against. The greatest foe of them all is ‘We the people’.
If we fail this time, our progeny will not forgive us. Let us not sacrifice our future, the happiness of our children especially those yet unborn and our nation on the altar of avarice and folly. As they say in a famous Warri slang , ‘make we borrow sense’ and in our pidgin English parlance , ‘our mumu don do’.
Gladly, INEC has extended the time for the collection of Permanent Voters cards (PVC), let us reciprocate this kind gesture by going to pick them. I appeal to INEC to mitigate the reported cases of inability and challenges by citizens to pick up their PVCs.
The electoral umpire in various fora had promised to ensure a credible, free and fair polls recently is the pledge by Prof Mahmood Yakubu at Chatham house where he said the poll will go on as planned on the 25th of February, 2023. INEC should also deal with dispatch the hue and cry by Nigerians of the ignominious issue of under aged voting or voters and unscrupulous INEC staff and bad eggs among her ranks. Security agencies like the Nigeria Police has to step up to ensuring the security of lives, especially of electorates and INEC personnel before, during and after the polls.
Fellow countrymen, this is not the time to be partisan but a time to be patriotic, a time to be a Nigerian and not a time to be Yoruba or Hausa or Igbo. It must be about Nigeria. Nigeria first.
Nigeria is at the theatre of delivery. She is pregnant with hope of the cry of laughter. ‘We the people’ have to be extremely careful so as not to have a stillbirth.
Uche Nwanze, a poet and social critic wrote from Asaba Delta state.
